It’s a first-ever New York Soccer Journal Roundtable, and it’s all about the 2026 FIFA World Cup. We’ve convened a panel of six of our writers: Matthew Mangam, Abe Shire, Megha Gupta, Michael Battista, Andrew Leigh, and Mark Radigan. Below, find all our boldest predictions for things like the World Cup winners, the teams that will be the biggest surprise and the biggest flop, dark-horse contenders, low-ranked Cinderellas, and a few individual award winners. This post is free for all readers, but we'd love it if you signed up to be a subscriber or made a one-time donation to support our mission and coverage.
Q: Let’s start with an overall tournament check-in. How do we feel about the buzz level, the vibes surrounding the start of the 2026 World Cup co-hosted by the United States, Mexico, and Canada? Are you excited? Can you feel the excitement out there in the world, and explain where you’re at?
Matthew Mangam: The hype is getting real. I’m definitely excited for the World Cup, and I can’t wait to spend the majority of this summer watching it. With the recent roster reveal event and friendlies at Sports Illustrated Stadium, I’ve started to feel the buzz.
Abe Shire: I agree with Matthew here. I love World Cup summers, and it’ll be even cooler to have it in our backyard. Walk five minutes in any direction, and you’ll see people in their country’s colors. Open Instagram, and you’ll see a European hyping up Waffle House. It’s funny to see, but it’s cool to witness (our) culture shock firsthand.
Megha Gupta: I saw that same thing on Instagram, and it was even more special because I’m from Atlanta. Seeing the German fan so excited to experience Atlanta and the American south before the tournament was so wholesome. We’ve been seeing it in the way cities have welcomed the teams, especially in Mexico.
Michael Battista: Going to slightly pivot from my colleagues and say this is a mixed bag of hype. Yes, excitement is out there. There have been some great moments already. Lawrence, Kansas, has become an Algeria hotbed, school kids in New York City are getting surprised with match tickets, heck, even the corporate marketing is a little fun (Panini album is coming together). But the overall vibe is still off with politics and price being a major factor. Can't have too much fun when referees and coaches are being denied entry, entire teams need to move base camps because of political authority, and regular people can't afford to attend games.
Andrew Leigh: Here in New York City, the Knicks and their run through the NBA Finals still consumes all. I think the local World Cup hype has been slightly delayed, but once we hit the first weekend and its days made for soccer gluttons with four matches staggered throughout, then you will feel it more in the city. I do agree with Michael that the off-field baggage surrounding the tournament makes it less joyous than it could be, so some of the hype is replaced with minor anxiety about what the next controversy or potentially embarrassing thing to pop up around the Cup might be
Mark Radigan: Now that the tournament is finally here, I’m super excited. Seeing all of the Europeans experiencing Buc-ee's and Taco Bell for the first time has been amusing, but I agree with Michael; I can’t help but have a feeling of angst going into the tournament, as well. People are getting denied visas left and right, ticket prices are still at extortionate levels, and I can’t say I’m 100% convinced the US will make it out of the group.
John Baney
Q: 48 teams enter, but only one team will lift that trophy at MetLife Stadium on July 19. Let’s start right at the end: Who is your pick to win the 2026 World Cup?
MM: As confident as I am in thinking France could make a third straight World Cup final and lift its second trophy in the last three tournaments, I think Spain will be the winners at MetLife Stadium on July 19.
Lamine Yamal is so much fun to watch, and Spain’s midfield is just so good. The defense isn’t perfect, but it’s paired with three great goalkeepers who make me confident that Spain will be hard to score on.
AS: Spain. They’re an incredible team and will be fun to watch, and one look at EA Sports' track record…
MG: I’m going to be the outlier here and say Portugal. I'm an Arsenal fan (don’t hate me for it), so my heart hurts saying this knowing so many of my players are on this stellar Spanish team, but Spain's Achilles heel has always been penalties. If they find themselves in that situation in the knockout rounds, even the best goalkeeper in the world won’t be able to save them.
The impact of João Neves and Vitinha on PSG throughout their UCL campaign was a sight to witness, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that carry through in the World Cup. Add Bruno Fernandes, who broke the all-time Premier League record for the most assists this season, to that midfield, and I think they have a better chance than most people anticipate.
MB: Going to agree with Abe and say Spain. The team just doesn't have many weaknesses for opposition to exploit. For a team that hasn’t won a knockout round match since 2010, the only time they've won the tournament, Luis de la Fuente and his group look primed to change that. Yes they have some injuries but players like Rodri are on pace to recover and play at near full strength. I predict Lamine Yamal to become what Kylian Mbappé became in the 2018 and 2022 tournaments.
AL: I’m easily the biggest outlier, but I’m predicting an unexpected trophy run from Brazil. With Carlo Ancelotti now at the helm, their squad looks deep, experienced, and well-positioned to make a run at a sixth World Cup, flying under the radar and without the weight of expectations on their less-heralded shoulders. They won the last time the tournament was in the United States in 1994, and I think they’ll do it again, though not thanks to some otherworldly individual tournament from Vini Jr., but instead, from a slightly boring collective approach that also benefits from impact performances from emerging talents like Endrick.
MR: Guess I’m the only one who’s going to tip France for a third straight World Cup final and a second tournament win in eight years. The French have the best attack in the world — full stop. Desire Doue, Ousmanne Dembele, and Michael Olise… all taking up their spots in support behind Kylian Mbappe, coming off a year where he bagged 43 goals in 47 games. Expect the French to score goals for fun en route to earning a third star above their crest.
Andrew Leigh
We just ran through a number of the favorites, but let’s try to figure out which more under-the-radar nation has the best chance to pull upsets and shock the world. Who is your dark horse this summer and what makes you think they’re ready to surprise?
MM: This answer feels weird just because historically they're so iconic, but I’m going to go with Brazil. I'd say it’s a surprising pick only because Brazil has reached the semifinals just once in the last five tournaments, and we all know how that last semifinal appearance went.
Although I’m shocked Carlo Ancelotti left striker João Pedro at home, I think Brazil will be just fine with Vinícius Júnior and Raphinha. I’m also a huge fan of Bruno Guimarães, who has been considered one of the best midfielders in the Premier League.
In defense, Gabriel, although missing a penalty in the UEFA Champions League final, is one of the best center-backs in the world and will be paired next to Marquinhos, who is 32 but who has plenty of experience.
I’d also like to say I think Norway and Morocco could both make deep runs, but I don’t think that would surprise too many people, given the talent on each side. Plus, Morocco already showed the world what it could do in 2022, and the team has looked very good leading up to the World Cup.
AL: I have a hard time calling them a dark horse since they were semifinalists in 2022, but Morocco is my pick in this category. I have them getting back to the quarterfinals, but wouldn’t be surprised to see them match their run to the semis.
AS: There’s going to be a lot of surprises, good and bad, when it comes to the top ten in FIFA rankings. Still, I’m going with Uruguay – they haven’t made much noise since 2010. There’s Fede Valverde, Ronald Araújo, and others, but don’t overlook Rodrigo Salazar, who had a breakout season (16 league goals, 2 goals in the Europa League for Sporting Braga).
MG: Türkiye is my dark horse. They were one of the most enjoyable teams to watch during the Euros two years ago, and I’m so excited about the energy that Arda Güler, Kenan Yildiz, and Ferdi Kadioglu bring to this team of older Turkish players who have been fighting to bring their country back to the World Cup. There’s just something about playing for his country that brings out the best of Güler (never forget that curling goal against Georgia).
I’d also like to give some credit to Senegal. With everything that happened at AFCON this year, this is a team that has something to prove and nothing to lose. That kind of mentality makes a team dangerous. For me personally, Group I and Group L are as close to groups of death as you can get. Erling Haaland has an agenda at this World Cup, but we’ll have to see if the entire Norwegian team can match his energy like Senegal can with Sadio Mané.
MR: I’m jumping in with Megha on this one. Türkiye is a team that no one seems to be talking about. World-class creative players in Guler & Yildiz along with Champions League experience littered throughout the squad. They’ll certainly give the USMNT a hard challenge in the race for that spot at the top of Group D.
MB: It's very weird to say Japan is a dark horse. The team is in its eighth straight World Cup, reached the Round of 16 in the last two tournaments (overall four of the seven times it competed), and they were the first non-host country to qualify for the tournament back in March 2025. They are noted Giant killers with wins over Germany, Spain and Colombia in the last two tournaments and beat England earlier this year in a friendly.
I truly think they can win Group F against the Netherlands, Tunisia, and Sweden. Real Sociedad winger Kubo is creative and can feed the ball across the entire pitch, making him a huge threat. The quick pace and lethal counter-attack of the Blue Samurai won't win them the tournament, but I think they can make a deep run into the knockouts past the historical barrier that is the Round of 16.
While there are three co-hosts, around these parts, we focus a lot on the United States men’s national team. Where do you see their World Cup journey leading?
MM: I think the United States will get out of its group and win in the Round of 32, but lose in the Round of 16. With the way the groups are set up, there’s a real possibility — if results go as expected — that the United States would have to face Belgium in the Round of 16, a rematch of the 2014 World Cup fixture.
I think the United States has the talent — Tyler Adams, Antonee Robinson, Sergiño Dest, Christian Pulisic — to be competitive, but the rest of the squad just doesn’t stack up to other solid teams. The defense looks questionable, too, which doesn’t give me much hope for when they play a better side like Belgium.
AS: The US comfortably advances from their group, but doesn’t make it past the Round of 32. I firmly believe that Pochettino wasn’t the right hire, and someone like BJ Callahan would have better prepared this group.
MG: I’m in agreement with the guys here. I think the US team gets a lot more hate than they deserve, but I still don’t think they can achieve the levels of Spain or France. I am a little more optimistic about their chances, but that depends on what I see when they play Türkiye. If they beat this Turkish team, I can see them getting to the Round of 16. If not, I think it's questionable that they advance past the Round of 32.
MB: The only game I have the United States winning outright in the group stage is against Paraguay. The game against Australia can go any direction, and a loss to Türkiye seems in the cards. Australia is one of the best teams in Asia and only lost 2-1 to the USA in a friendly last October, where lineups were shuffled. Assuming a win and a draw, four points gets you through as either second or third place, but a third-place finish could get you a date against either France or Germany in your first knockout game. I don’t see this team getting past the Round of 32.
AL: I think we’re in for a roller-coaster group stage that features one win, one draw, one loss, in that order. I think that still ends up being good enough for second in the group, and I think they draw Egypt in the Round of 32 and win that game, but don’t get any further than the Round of 16. Is that a successful run for the host nation, one with a “golden generation” of players at top European clubs playing in their second World Cup together?
MR: I second Andrew’s point about the group stage. I called Group D my “Group of Death” on this week's Soccer Journal Pod (which you should totally check out), and I stand by it. All four teams are capable of beating each other and advancing out of this group. That said, the United States SHOULD get out of the group. If they do, I think a run to the Round of 16 or Quarterfinals is well within reach for Pochettino’s boys. Anything less would be a failure, all things considered.
Mark Radigan
There are almost always teams that enter the World Cup with big expectations that end up crashing and burning. Think of Germany in 2022, when they failed to get out of their group. Who will be this year’s biggest flop?
MM: Argentina. Although mostly unchanged, the squad is older and slightly worse compared to 2022. Yes, I’m a huge fan of the attack — Julián Álvarez, Lautaro Martínez, and, of course, Lionel Messi — but the defense is the weakness, particularly Nicolás Otamendi, who is 38 years old and expected to start alongside Cristian Romero.
I think they’ll make a decent run, but they won’t have that same magic that they had in 2022.
AS: I also like Argentina here, but I can see France stumbling through the group, advancing through third place, and losing to the first legit contender they meet. They’re almost too star-studded.
MG: I agree with Abe in the fact that a team with too many stars isn't necessarily a team meant to shine. Just look at Real Madrid. That being said, I’m tossing England into the ring with this one. Every four years, there is always a hope that England will finally bring it home. They always manage to make it far in the knockout stages, but never have enough to get over those final few rounds.
I don’t think that will be the case this year. I can see them tying or even losing to Croatia in the group stages. They played lackluster football during the Euros, and I expect something similar two years later, especially with the omission of Harry Maguire.
MR: I’m saying England as well. Thomas Tuchel made some questionable selections for his first World Cup as England boss, and I just don’t see England lining up well against some of the other heavy-hitters in Spain, France, and Germany. Harry Kane will find the back of the net; that much is certain, considering he bagged a whopping 64 goals in 56 games for Bayern Munich this season. But that’s about it. The defense is filled with inexperience at this level, and I think leaving a proven World Cup-caliber defender like Maguire at home will come back to bite Tuchel.
MB: I just don’t like Brazil this year. The team finished fifth in CONMEBOL qualifying, and yes, that was a four-way tie on points with tie-breakers. It shows two things: South America is catching up and the Amarelinha is not the team that breaks ahead anymore. The hiring of Carlo Ancelotti as manager has helped fix a lot of issues, but it won’t be enough to fulfill the lofty expectations set upon a team like Brazil. Will be shocked in the knockouts.
AL: The Netherlands doesn't look poised for a good summer. They struggled to a 2-1 win over mighty Uzbekistan at Icahn Stadium in their final pre-Cup friendly. I think they’re the giant that finds life the hardest at this World Cup. I don’t think they have a clear answer at striker, and none of Japan, Sweden, or Tunisia are pushovers. This is not to say the Dutch get grouped, but I could see a struggle, and I think they are one-and-done in the knockout stages, a disappointment for a nation that's played in three World Cup finals.
This is the first-ever tournament with 48 teams, so that means eight teams to finish in third in their groups will advance to the Round of 32. What will be the lowest-ranked nation to emerge from group play?
MM: After being one of the eighth-best third-placed teams, I think Bosnia and Herzegovina will be the lowest-ranked nation to emerge from group play. To achieve this feat, Bosnia will beat Qatar and tie against Canada, earning the European country four points, which would be enough to advance.
I was leaning toward Ghana at first to be the lowest-ranked nation to advance, but I think they'll only beat Panama and lose to England and Croatia.
AS: Curaçao. They were impressive in qualifying, posting a +23 goal differential in 10 games. They win against Ecuador and Côte d'Ivoire, and lose to Germany. None of these will be particularly close games.
MG: South Africa, actually. 16 years after hosting the World Cup, they’re a completely changed team thanks to Hugo Broos. They face stiff competition against South Korea and Mexico, but I think they’re pretty evenly matched to the point where I could see those matches going either way.
MB: Agreeing with Matt in saying Bosnia and Herzegovina. I’ll admit their qualifying campaign did not start out impressive. They finished second in a weak group that saw Austria advance directly to the tournament, who they lost to and tied during the round robin. But late equalizers against Wales and Italy forced penalty kick shootouts, both of which they won. They can beat Qatar and Canada, which is enough to move on, but even a win and a draw could be enough. If you want a country who can stick around and has a catchy World Cup song, you go to B&H.
MR: Give me Haiti. The Haitians beat New Zealand 4-0 ahead of this summer's tournament and boast a few Premier League players casual fans may recognize, like Sunderland's Wilson Isidor and Wolves' Jean-Richer Bellegarde. They'll also be playing with a chip on their shoulder. Haiti is going through intense internal conflict right now, and many are counting The Grenadiers as a group-stage exit without a whimper. But with third-place teams having a chance to progress, don't be surprised if Haiti sneaks in as the last nation to move on.
AL: I like Tunisia for this. Zero goals conceded in 10 qualifying matches played is impressive even if their competition wasn't the same as facing, say, Belgium, who just beat them 5-0 in a friendly. From that group with Sweden, Japan, and the Netherlands, I don't think it's crazy to see them in third place and as one of the advancing teams.
All our talk so far has been about teams, but let’s shift focus to some individuals. Which player is going to emerge as the Player of the Tournament, the one who gets to take home the Golden Ball trophy when it’s all said and done? It was Lionel Messi in 2022, and in 2026 it will be…
MM: A boring but expected answer: The Player of the Tournament will be Lamine Yamal, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he won the Young Player Award.
AS: It's gotta be Lamine Yamal.
MG: I also like Lamine Yamal, but I think I like Michael Olise more.
MB: Split between Lamine Yamal and Harry Kane, but I think the Spaniard will be the better player overall.
AL: Lamine Yamal, I think he gets Spain to the final and shines as their no-doubt best player, and goes home with both the Golden Ball and Young Player awards.
MR: Give me Kylian Mbappé. I expect he’ll be in the running for the Golden Boot and will want to extend his record in scoring in World Cup final. If France makes the final, let alone wins the entire tournament, it will be down to the production of Mbappé up front.
As for Yamal… I think he’s a lock for Young Player of the Tournament if he doesn’t win for being the best overall. There’s no better teenager on the planet right now.
Being the best player doesn’t always mean scoring the most goals. That said, we need you to pick the player you think will end up scoring the most goals. Who is winning the Golden Boot?
MM: Another boring answer, but I think it will be Kylian Mbappé. I’m backing France to go all the way to the semifinals, so he’ll have plenty of games to score goals.
AS: The Netherlands will come up against very leaky defenses in the group stage, and Cody Gakpo has seemed reliable, and he’s been taking penalties.
MG: I'm going with a dark horse pick here, but I favor Erling Haaland. He’s Norway’s all-time top scorer, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him ball out at his first World Cup.
MB: I'll be different and say Harry Kane. He scored 61 goals for Bayern Munich across all competitions in 2025-26, and while club and country differ he’s on a stellar pace. He won the Golden Boot in 2018 thanks to a hat-trick in the group stage against Panama, who they meet again at the end of the month.
AL: I'm taking a pragmatic approach and going with Kylian Mbappé, since I think he reaches the semifinals (but falls short of another final), and because he’s now playing closer to goal than even in the previous two World Cups. Now that he’s serving as a center-forward post-Olivier Giroud, I think he racks up the goals and sits atop the scoring leaderboard for a second straight time.
MR: Wow, I'm not much of a free-thinker, huh? It's Mbappé for me. But I think Kane will score 3 to 5 in the group stage alone. Also, look out for Haaland, for obvious reasons. Norway-Iraq could very well wrap up the Golden Boot race before it starts, like when he scored NINE for Norway’s U20 team vs Honduras back in 2019. But a real outlier prediction: Folarin Balogun. You read it here first.
