Gotham FC NWSL Shield Scenarios: What it takes to finish first with two games to go

Gotham FC lost 1-0 to Washington Spirit at Audi Field and now has to sweat over its hold on first place in the NWSL table, and thus the NWSL Shield.

Gotham has been setting the points pace since ascending to first place on August 1 when they beat Houston Dash 1-0 on the road. Ten matches later, they continue to lead the way with 55 points, but the loss in DC creates extra urgency heading into the final two matches of the regular season and means it's a three-team race for the Shield.

San Diego Wave FC won again, their fifth straight victory, meaning the Wave is now just one point behind Gotham in second place with 54 points. The Washington win over Gotham also means the Spirit remains alive in the Shield chase, as Washington now has 52 points. The win over Gotham was not only a streak-breaker for the Spirit after getting shut out in the last four head-to-head meetings, it also clinched Washington's playoff spot and keeps them in this Shield race for another week.

Who finishes on top of the league now hinges on the final two matches left to play for this trio of teams. Gotham FC closes out the season by visiting Orlando Pride (11th place, 36 points) then hosting Utah Royals FC (sixth place, 46 points).

San Diego hosts Boston Legacy (12th place, 32 points), then finishes the season on the road against California rivals Bay FC (14th place, 27 points). The Wave has the two "easiest" remaining opponents, on paper, if you're going by points totals.

Washington has the single hardest game remaining of any of these teams, next playing at Kansas City Current (fourth place, 47 points), who are undefeated through 14 home matches at CPKC Stadium this season. The Spirit then play the badly struggling Chicago Stars FC (16th place, 17 points) at home at Audi Field on the season's final day.

Six matches still to be played which all hold a direct influence on the Shield race, but since Gotham gets the bulk of our focus here, it feels most useful to run through what each set of possible Gotham results would do for their chances of clinching a first Shield in franchise history.

An extremely fun way to play along at home and speculate about the state of the final NWSL table comes via this cool NWSL Playoffs Explorer tool from Alison Gale, which lets you build your own final table by predicting results in each of the remaining matches to come to close out this NWSL campaign. It was useful in gaming out the different Gotham scenarios, which go as follows.

Two wins: Gotham clinches the Shield

Straightforward enough: Beat both Orlando and Utah and Gotham ends the season in first place and celebrates a first-ever NWSL Shield at Sports Illustrated Stadium on the season's final day. Neither San Diego nor Washington can reach 61 points, which is what Gotham would end up with if they closed on a high of back-to-back wins. Easier said than done given the rough injury luck Gotham is fighting against late this season.

One win, one draw: Pressure on the Wave

Wine one, draw the other, and Gotham would end with 59 points and would only finish in second place if San Diego wins both of its final two matches. Washington wouldn't be able to catch Gotham in this scenario, and a win and a draw from San Diego would leave them short by one point. If the Goths can't win back-to-back against Orlando and Utah, this is the next best pair of results, though it relies on some help from either Boston Legacy (and its plethora of ex-Gotham players) or Bay FC to force a slip-up out of San Diego, winners of five straight matches.

One win, one loss: Time to hold your breath

If it's one win and one loss to close the season for Gotham, both San Diego and Washington could match their points total (58), but only the Wave could surpass it, so goal differential — the first NWSL standings tiebreaker — could play a big factor in deciding places in the table.

The order of tiebreakers in NWSL goes goal differential first, then total wins second. All three of Gotham, San Diego, and Washington hold nearly identical goal differentials, but the Wave has one more win in the bank than both Gotham and Washington heading into the final two matches. Ending up tied on points with San Diego wouldn't work out well for Gotham, unless Gotham was able to ensure it ended with a better goal differential.

Two draws: Maybe enough, maybe not

Ties with Orlando and Utah leave Gotham with 57 points, which could be enough to win the Shield, if San Diego earns three (pending goal differential) or fewer points from its last two matches, and if Washington fails to win out.

Washington could hit 58 points with two wins, enough to pass GFC and enough to put its own pressure on the Wave. Even if the Spirit win their last two, San Diego, with 54 points entering their final two matches, could clinch the Shield with either two more wins, or possibly with a win and a draw, depending on how their goal differential at the end compares to Washington's.

Two losses: Forget about it

If Gotham stays stuck at 55 points, their likelihood of ending the season in third place increases significantly. They can't fall any lower than third place, but that's not where they'd expect to finish after two-months-and-change spent at the top of the table.

In this scenario, the Wave and Spirit would each have simple ways to pass Gotham, and would each have their own paths to the Shield. San Diego would once again be guaranteed first place with two wins, since nobody could match their 60 points.

The Spirit would need two wins and for San Diego to ideally do no better than three points from its final two games, though a win and a draw from San Diego could still possibly enough for Washington to win the shield, pending those pesky goal differential and tiebreaker situations after all the dust has settled.

There's a lot still to be settled, and those standings tiebreakers could end up being very real factors in handing out this year's Shield, but before that, it'll come down to results earned in six high-stakes matches played by the league's three top teams.